Predicting eclipse visitation with population statistics

How many people will travel to see the eclipse of April 8, 2024? The answer will have big economic and public safety impacts on communities inside the path of totality. It will also impact eclipse visitors with high traffic and reduced access to facilities.

We developed a simple model to estimate eclipse visitation. It is based on two ideas:

1. People who live close to the path of totality are more likely to come than people who are distant.

2. People will, on average, travel the shortest drive distance to the path of totality.

We applied ArcGIS software to US Census data plus a detailed digital road network for the USA. The details of our eclipse visitation model are described at the bottom of this page. The results of our eclipse visitation model is broken down by state in this graphic.

The lines leading towards the yellow circles are the shortest drive paths from over 3,000 US counties to destinations in the path of totality. They are color coded by destination state.

Texas will enjoy the majority of eclipse visitors next April 8 with a high estimate of just over a million visitors. Next are Indiana and Ohio which can expect about a high estimate of about half million people each. Heavy traffic will come from nearby metropolises such as San Antonio, Houston, Memphis, St Louis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit, and Pittsburgh.

Eclipse drivesheds and visitation totals

These are the drivesheds and visitation totals for 12 states inside the path of totality.

Eclipse visitation in detail

The following maps show 8 detail views, from Texas to Maine, of where people may accumulate for the eclipse. While many people will seek to go to the very center of the eclipse for the longest duration of totality, any good viewing location with a duration over 4 minutes will make a great destination.

A few notes on these maps:

• The oval shapes inside the path of totality show the shadow of the Moon every five minutes.

• The durations of total solar eclipse are shown. The longest duration is in the center of the path.

• The blue stars are destinations where a significant highway comes close to the center of the path of totality. The stars are sized in proportion to the estimated visitors.

• The golden lines show the flow of expected traffic to the center of the path of totality. The line thickness is in proportion to expected traffic.

• The numbers of estimated visitors follow a simple prescribed model. A destination adjacent to another with larger visitation estimates may have a large amount of visitors on eclipse day due to better infrastructure or a large eclipse viewing event.

• The count of estimate visitors does not include people already living inside the path of totality.

Within Texas, we expect a large inflow to Kerrville, very close to the center of the eclipse path. Many will come from San Antonio which is partly within the path. While visitation estimates are lower for the Uvalde and Eagle Pass areas, we expect additional eclipse chasers because of the superior weather odds. A bonus in rural Texas will be a spectacular night sky.

The entire metropolitan area of Dallas-Ft Worth is inside the path of totality, nearly 7 million people! Our model does not predict a particularly large visitation to Dallas because other destinations may be closer, but expect these numbers to be greatly exceeded for Dallas simply because of the large numbers of people who will host relatives and friends for the eclipse. A total of 12 million people in Texas live inside the path of total solar eclipse.

The Ouachita mountains of Arkansas will draw some people for camping and dark night skies. Nashville, Tennessee is close to the path and thousands will drive past Jonesboro for a prime view of totality. In Missouri, Cape Girardeau and Perryville will draw many people from the St Louis metropolitan area. While Little Rock gets 2 and a half minutes of totality, many will take a short drive to Conway or beyond for 4 minutes.

Southern Illinois will enjoy their 2nd total solar eclipse in less than 7 years! Carbondale, Illinois was a prime location in 2017 and will be again in 2024. Indianapolis and surrounding suburbs will have many visitors from the Chicago area. Vincennes, Indiana may be a sleeper destination; longest duration in the state and very light expected traffic. Certainly, some neighbors in Terre Haute and Evansville will make the short drive to gain a minute of darkness.

Columbus and Detroit are just outside the path of totality. The thick gold lines from these cities to the path of totality shows the high visitation along that path. People wanting to avoid heavy traffic should avoid these thick routes. If eclipse day is partly cloudy here, Interstate 90 will have many vehicles relocating in search of clear sky.

Erie, Pennsylvania is on the shortest path for many from Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and eastern Virginia. Large eclipse viewing events are planned for Rochester and Buffalo. With good weather, our estimates will likely be exceeded. While the weather in this area will be challenging in April, certain weather patterns may be conducive to sunny skies. Learn more at eclipsophile.com.

Watertown and Plattsburgh will be logical destinations for many from throughout New York. No doubt many from Syracuse will drive a bit north for longer duration. Burlington, Vermont is also well situated with about 3 minutes and 15 seconds. All of Lake Champlain will be covered over 3 minutes of darkness.

Richford on the Vermont/Canada border should receive a good number of visitors on eclipse day. Houlton, Maine is hosting a large eclipse viewing event and activities and could be a larger draw than our estimate.

Method for estimating eclipse visitation

The estimates for visitation given on this page are derived from these assumptions:

• Consider someone who live 200 miles from the centerline of eclipse. This person will certainly have heard about the eclipse from print, broadcast, and social media. This person will have received the impression that the eclipse is a special sight and worth seeing.

• Not every one has the freedom travel. Monday is a work day and for some, a school day. Some people may be deterred by stories of past traffic jams at the 2017 eclipse. Some people will simply be completely disinterested.

• Weighing these factors, we began with the assumption that for an average person 200 miles away, there is a high possibility of 2% that they would drive to the path of totality and a low possibility of 0.5%. And then halve that estimate for 400 miles, again at 800 miles, and so on.

These are the steps for the geographic analysis we performed:

1. We began with the US Census county enumeration data from the 2020 census. To constrain a compute-intensive process, we “lumped” the US population into over 3,000 county seats.

2. We digitized a series of eclipse destination points in the path of totality. We placed these points along highway intersections or off-ramps near the centerline of totality. Don’t thing of these points as exact gathering places but rather represent the local area.

3. In ArcGIS software, we performed geographic analysis to calculate the shortest drive paths from each county seat to the eclipse destination points. We also know how many people live in that county and the distance of the path of totality.

4. We apply our assumption as a formula and compute the visitation probabilities from each county seat.

5. Multiple shortest drive paths will typically converge on a destination. Some up the visitation numbers from each drive path for the destination.

6. After consideration, we decided to apply additional weights to the visitation estimates, recognizing that a location such as Texas is more likely to experience sunny weather, hence higher visitation.